The Geopolitical Landscape after the Turkish Coup

Turkey was always very important for NATO. Initially Turkey bordered the Soviet Union, when Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan were communist colonies.

After the fall of the Soviet Union there was the problem with Iran’s nuclear program, and Iran’s terrorist attacks against the West. Turkey again bordered Iran, and could be used for an attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Recently there was the issue with the ex-people of Saddam Hussein i.e the Islamic State, who were overturned by the US in 2003, and they launched many terrorist attacks against the West. NATO again needs Turkey to combat the people of Saddam Hussein.

Map The Importance of Turkey

Map Turkish Stream.JPG

In the previous years the Turks and the Russians developed a strategic partnership in the energy sector i.e. the Blue Stream and the Trans-Balkan Pipeline, and the Turks did not support NATO in Ukraine, but instead they started discussing with the Russians the possibility of the Turk Stream Pipeline, which would bypass Ukraine to the South. The Russians, with the help of the Germans, bypassed Ukraine to the North (Nord Stream).

The Americans had to approach Iran, in order to counter the Turkish-Russian and the Saudi-Chinese rapprochements.

But then there was the issue of Syria, and Russia was not willing to allow Turkey and Qatar to go ahead with the Qatar-Turkey pipeline, and Turkey and Russia went to a war in Syria, and Turkey downed the Russian aircraft and Turkey wholeheartedly returned to NATO.

But then Russia started supporting the Syrian Kurds, and the PKK in the Turkish Kurdistan, and Turkey saw the threat of an independent Kurdistan in Syria, and why not in Turkey later on. The Americans were not willing to support Turkey against their allies the Syrian Kurds, who were helping them combat the people of Saddam Hussein i.e. the Islamic State.

According to the National Interest the prospect of Assad is for Turkey a lesser evil than the prospect of an independent Kurdistan, and who could argue with that. Moreover, according to the National Interest the Turkish-Russian rivalry affects the war of Armenia-Azerbaijan, which threatens the supplies of Turkey from Azerbaijan.

As a result it has been sometime since the Turks have been more relaxed towards Russia, trying to improve relatiosn. The article also mentions that Putin’s role in Turkey is enhanced because Erdogan knows that the Westerners do not like him.

The article wonders whether the coup in Turkey, which I believe was staged by Erdogan, will end up in Turkey and Russia sorting out their differences in Syria, thus reviving the Turk Stream pipeline. That means Turkey will abandon the Qatar-Turkey project.

That’s the one million dollar question, because the Russia-Turkey-Israel axis that was recently formed has some problems. It goes against the Turkish-Qatari alliance, it goes against the Russo-Iranian alliance, and it goes against the American-Israeli alliance. Moreover it creates problems to the strategic partnership between Turkey and Iran. So what will happen? Iran and Qatar will form an alliance with the United States against Russia, Turkey and Israel? You can see that the Russia-Turkey-Israel axis contradicts the alliances of Russia, Turkey and Israel. It is not an easy case. Therefore there is no way to predict what will happen. You just have to wait and see.

And there is Hilary Clinton and the Democrats, who want to bring more army in Syria in order to put pressure on Russia, which would help Turkey, and there is Donald Trump, who wants to improve the American-Russian relations and ban the Muslim Brotherhood, which would help Russia. Therefore the future is unpredictable.

I think that Donald Trump is right. I do not see why the American democrats should support the Islamofascists against Russia, instead of becoming friends with Russia which is a Christian country. If you follow the Hilary Clinton view, you have to send troops to Syria to fight Russia, in order to support the Qatar-Turkey axis, and you have to fight a war in Turkey’s Kurdistan in order to promote the Iran-Turkey and the Iraqi Kurdistan-Turkey pipelines. That’s too much war.

And at the end of the day what happens if you win these wars? You will have greatly strengthen the Islamofascists against Russia. Why would you want to do that? Only European and American socialists would want that because they get too much petrodollars from Islamofascists. Instead of all these wars you can make Russia your friend and you let the Islamofascists that they are in serious problems if they keep attacking the West.

“Putin May Be Turkey’s New Buddy after the Failed Coup”, July 2016

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/putin-may-be-turkeys-new-buddy-after-the-failed-coup-17037?page=2

 

 

10 thoughts on “The Geopolitical Landscape after the Turkish Coup”

  1. Putin is also a dictator and not much more trustworthy than Erdogan. The latter is undoubtedly more dangerous at the moment, as he could become the new Caliph of Islam with real armed forces (and leased nuclear weapons…) just beyond the corner of Europe, however the former is also a constant threat for Eastern Europe. I think we should stay far away from both and chase Turkey out of NATO. By bargaining over future partition of Syria with Russia, NATO could get a new Bridgehead in Middle East (it may be for example the Kurdistan) and replace Turkey.

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  2. Should the Russian be nice to us because we buy their gas?! This is silly! Have the Arabs been nice towards us since we started to buy their oil?
    The Russians want us to buy their gas and want to regain the political power they lost after the collapse of the URSS, at the expense of the former Eastern-Bloc countries. Ignoring this is a huge error.
    I also think that Russia is part of the civilized western countries and we should work together to defeat the Islamists, but the price for this cannot be the fate of Eastern Europe.
    So, as long as the Russians keep on holding the end of rebuild the Soviet Empire, Europe must become more independent from both Russia and Middle East, developing new energy source, as the Americans did with the shale gas, and strengthening the borders.

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  3. Russia and the US have been enemies in their military adventures and in the Cold War. But in the critical survival wars, Russia has been America’s ally: American War of Independence (yep), the Civil War (Union), WW1, WW11. If anyone has a better suggestion for peace than immediate collaboration between Russia and the US I’d like to hear it. Obviously, the Baltic States are a line the Russians must not cross, but if Crimea and Donbas are happier under the Russian aegis maybe Ukraine can be placated with energy or other trade-offs. The Germans (or EU as we now call them) and Turks may be left in the cold strategically, but maybe that’s where they belong after certain events of the 20th century. Not ideal, but it’s a naughty world we’re in right now. If Turkey takes the best deal it can get while the EU returns to simply being a diverse economic co-operative, so much the better.

    There are people who feel that all can be fixed by pushing Israel into the sea, presumably so we can have another faction-ridden theocracy in the Middle East. I think much can be fixed by bringing Israel into that Russian-US collaboration. Not saying I’m sure, but the present plan of confrontation with Russia and favouring of the Muslim Brotherhood and whichever Sunni has lots of fuel to sell is definitely not working. It’s also worth remembering the millions Hillary Clinton, a violent and erratic character, has received from Gulf States, Boeing, Lockheed etc. If Bibi, Putin and Trump (and maybe Assad) can’t have their conversation very soon we may be in the biggest trouble of all.

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      1. Something like that, Iakovos. The chant “Assad must go” is almost automatic now with the likes of Hillary and even our own Australian leadership. He is supposed to vacate for certain Sunnis who are known personally to John McCain. I don’t have the answers myself, but those Sunnis known personally to John McCain are hard to distinguish from common head-loppers.

        Kurdistan might not bring the desired balance, the Brotherhood is not so brotherly and these fluid balkanising and re-balkanising situations seldom end as hoped. (Judging by Libya, they don’t end.) I can’t convince even myself that Israel, Assad and Russia ought to get together with the US and try to bring Turkey along, I could be hopelessly wrong about it all. But nothing else presents itself. You seem to be saying a similar thing?

        Rebalancing the relationship with Saudis etc is not easy when eg your London flat is owned by Qatar and when Egypt is being tided over by oil states. The there’s Hamas, Hezbollah and all those Al’s. But the West supped with the Bear before when things were dire and it worked. I say do it now before the EU technocratic empire gets an army and can show us what a real strategy and policy mess looks like. I’m not a fan-boy of Putin but there’s a chance that he’s more of a Bismarckian consolidator than a loopy expansionist. So I’d go with that chance.

        I’m pretty sure your own thoughts are more informed than mine. Just throwing it out there, Can’t help feeling the key to an unsatisfactory peace that’s better than the alternative is collaboration of Trump and the Anglosphere with Russia, especially if the Saudi monarchy falls and Israel needs new friends. It’s an ugly recipe that works.

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  4. Would you like to cede the whole Syria to the Russians, hoping that the Russians will give up claiming parts of Eastern Europe? This is another silly idea! Once they got the control of Syria they would be even more assertive towards UE and Nato and would start to make a mess with Turkey. We must bargain with Russia over the partition of Syria but not drop our pants!
    But this is what could happen if that ridiculous Donald Trump becomes President.

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