On December 3rd 2015 the British airforce bombed ISIS in Syria for the first time, following the British decision to fight ISIS together with France and Germany. The Brits have actually chosen to bomb a region with an oilfield controlled by ISIS. See CNN “UK jets target ISIS oilfield — and group’s income, defense ministry says”, December 2015.
On December 4th hundreds of Turkish soldiers invaded Northern Iraq, near the rich in oil Mosul, which also accommodates oil refineries. See Guardian “Turkish troops go into Iraq to train forces fighting Isis”, December 2015. The Baghdad government of the Iraqi Shiites said that this is an invasion and requested that the Turkish soldiers leave the country. The Turks claim that they are trying to fight ISIS.
The truth is that if the Turkish army replaces ISIS the French, the English and the Germans will not be able to bomb anymore, because these areas will be controlled by Turkey, and Turkey, at least on paper, is a NATO ally for the French, the Germans and the English. Therefore an attack by England, France and Germany will be an attack a NATO ally and not an attack against ISIS. Everybody knows Turkey’s connections with ISIS, but these two are not exactly the same thing. The point is that the Turks will make it very difficult for the French, the English and the Germans to attack.
Iraq – Arab Shiites (green), Arab Sunnis (pink) and Kurds (brown)
On 4th December 2015 the British Telegraph, and many other newspapers, wrote that Germany does not want to share information with Turkey in Syria and Iraq. The Germans said that they are afraid that Turkey might use this information against the Kurds, but I believe the Germans are afraid that this sensitive information might end up in ISIS hands. See the Telegraph “Germany ‘draws up plans to prevent sharing intelligence’ with NATO ally Turkey”, December 2015.
Yesterday, only two days after the British attack against ISIS in Syria, a man attacked and hurt 3 people in the London Underground, shouting “That’s for Syria”. See Independent “Leytonstone stabbing treated as terror incident after attacker ‘shouts this is for Syria”, December 2015.
I have to remind you that in September 2015 the Russians agreed on Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which will double the Russian gas that enters Europe through the Baltic Sea and Germany, from 55 to 110 billion cubic meters per year. Gazprom holds 51% of the shares, and the rest is equally distributed to the French state-controlled ENGIE, the two German giants E.ON and BASF/Wintershall, the Austrian state-controlled OMV, in which the United Arab Emirates have a large stake too, and the giant Anglo-Dutch company Shell (Royal Dutch Shell). See Gazprom “Gazprom, BASF, E.ON, ENGIE, OMV and Shell sign Shareholders Agreement on Nord Stream 2 project”, September 2015.
With this agreement the Russians bypass Ukraine in order to send their gas to Western and Central Europe i.e. France, England, Germany, Austria, the Netherlands, while at the same time they are giving a share to all the big players to keep them happy. They leave out the Italians, who are obviously not happy because they had a large share of the Southern Energy Corridor (Russia-Bulgaria-Southern+Central Europe). The Italians and the Spanish, who are very strong in the Arab countries of North Africa i.e. Algeria and Libya, are also trying to bring to Europe the natural gas of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea i.e. Cyprus, Israel and Egypt. See following map from a very interesting article from Natural Gas Europe.
Map Natural Gas of Egypt, Cyprus and Israel
If the construction of a pipeline is not feasible, the Italians and the Spanish can also use the Egyptian LNG facilities of Damietta and Idku, in order to export to Europe in LNG form the gas of the region (see above map). See also “ENI VS Gazprom – A New War in Eastern Mediterranean Sea”
All the above hurt vital Turkish economic interests, and in order to retaliate the Turkish Islamists have allied with the Greek communists and they are sending hundreds of thousands of immigrants to Germany and Austria tearing Europe apart. See also “The European Division Over Nord Stream 2”.
Turkey is asking from the European Union 3 billion in cash, in order to help with the immigrants, and the Greek communist are asking the Europeans not to insist on reform and transparency in the Greek public sector, in order to help with the immigrants too. The Turkish Islamists are also asking that Turkey joins the EU in order to get the big money. I believe that under these conditions Turkey would allow Nord Stream 2 to go ahead. The English, the French and the Germans are currently paying Turkey the 3 billion euros. See Financial Times “EU ready to pay €3bn bill for Turkey’s help with migrants”, November 2015.
The disadvantage of the Russians, the French, the English and the Germans is that they cannot send troops in Syria and Iraq, and therefore they can never win this war no matter how much they bomb ISIS. However to retaliate, the French, the English and the Germans are at the same time bombing ISIS in Syria and Iraq. Turkey cannot possibly say “don’t bomb ISIS”, because Turkey does not admit having any connections with ISIS. That’s Turkey’s big disadvantage. However what Turkey can do is to replace ISIS with the Turkish army as I explained before, in order for France, England and Germany not to be able to attack the regions that will be under Turkish control.
Another problem is that the US cannot intervene because there are NATO members in both sides. If the Americans fight Turkey on the side of France, England and Germany, it will be like throwing Turkey out of NATO. And the Americans really need Turkey in their struggle against Russia. If the Americans intervene on the side of Turkey they will go against their traditional allies, and that’s not possible either. Therefore the Americans will try to be the referee, but this is a very tough fight, and no referee can have an easy life.
Map: The Turks VS The Russians
“UK jets target ISIS oilfield — and group’s income, defense ministry says”, December 2015
“Turkish troops go into Iraq to train forces fighting Isis”, December 2015
“Germany ‘draws up plans to prevent sharing intelligence’ with Nato ally Turkey”, December 2015
“Leytonstone stabbing treated as terror incident after attacker ‘shouts this is for Syria”, December 2015
“Gazprom, BASF, E.ON, ENGIE, OMV and Shell sign Shareholders Agreement on Nord Stream 2 project”, September 2015
“EU ready to pay €3bn bill for Turkey’s help with migrants”, November 2015