Very nice article by Al Monitor, titled “Ιs Turkey heading toward civil war?”, September 2015, which wonders whether Turkey will manage to avoid a civil war at South East Turkey i.e. Turkish Kurdistan. If Turkey indeed goes to a war with the Kurds of PKK in East Turkey, who are wholeheartedly supported by Russia, Russia will be the big winner. The war in Syria prevents the Qatar-Turkey gas pipeline, which would hurt Gazprom in Europe, and the war in East Turkey will bury the Southern Energy Corridor. The German-Russian pipelines through the Baltic Sea will be the only safe options. Russia wins.
Algeria, where the state owned Sonatrach could send her natural gas to Europe, through the Maghreb Pipeline (Algeria-Morocco-Spain) and the Trans-Mediterranean Pipeline (Algerian-Tunisia-Italy), together with the Nigeria’s gas through the Trans-Saharan pipeline, is not likely to make it. The Nigerian gas has to pass Boko Haram in order to reach Algeria, and the Algerian gas needs Morocco and Tunisia to reach Europe. There are many terrorist attacks in both Morocco and Tunisia, because the Algerian gas hurts Turkey, it hurts Russia, it hurts Iran, it hurts Qatar, it hurts Saudi Arabia, it hurts all the international terrorists. And when all terrorists are united you have a big problem.
Therefore for the moment Russia seems to win big. But will Turkey give up, or will she attack the Russian pipelines in Germany, where there are many islamists influenced by Turkey? If Turkey attacks Russia in Germany, she will attack Germany too, and that will take the game to the next level, because Russia and Turkey are international terrorists, but Germany is not. Will Turkey dare to bring the war in the European Union? If she does it will be a new day.
At the following articles you can read about terrorism in Morocco and Tunisia.
“Ιs Turkey heading toward civil war?”, September 2015
“Morocco placed on high terror alert by Foreign Office with travellers urged to be ‘vigilant’”, September 2015
“Tunisia terror attack: 30 of 38 people killed are British, UK says”, July 2015