The Israel-Egypt-Jordan Natural Gas Agreement and the July 2014 War in Gaza

Iakovos Alhadeff

The following Financial Times article of 21st Mai 2014, reported that Israel was very close to signing agreements with Egypt and Jordan for exporting Israeli natural gas to these countries, from Leviathan, Israel’s largest natural gas field.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/02ea38aa-e0e2-11e3-a934-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl

(you can click on the picture to enlarge it)

Israel Egypt Jordan PA

At the following article of Haaretz, which is as you can see at the following Wikipedia link, Israel’s oldest newspaper, and its English version is published with the New York Times,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haaretz

it was reported on 30 June 2014 that Israel did finally sign an agreement to export to Egypt 30 billion dollars of natural gas in the next 15 years. That is 2 billion dollars of natural gas each year, and it amounts to 20% of Leviathan’s capacity.

http://www.haaretz.com/business/.premium-1.601980

At the following article of the Times of Israel, an electronic newspaper that is published in 3 languages, it was reported on 3 September 2014, that Israel did finally sign an agreement to export to Jordan 15 billion dollars of natural gas in the next 15 years.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-signs-15-billion-gas-deal-with-jordan/

What happened in the time between the Financial Times article on 21 Mai 2014, which reported that Israel was close to signing the agreements and the Haaretz article on 30 June, which reported the actual 30 billion dollar agreement between Egypt and Israel?

Well what happened is that the 3 Israeli teenagers were abducted by Hamas on 12 June 2014, as you can read at the first line of the following Wikipedia link, in section “Immediate Events”.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Israel%E2%80%93Gaza_conflict#Immediate_events

At the first paragraph of the following Wikipedia link, you can read that on 7 July 2014, one week after the agreement between Israel and Egypt, Hamas took responsibility for the teenagers’ abductions and at the same time it launched 40 rockets to Israel. One day later, on the 8 July 2014, the Israeli army entered Gaza.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Israel%E2%80%93Gaza_conflict

It is well known that Hamas is funded by Qatar. Hamas won the elections in 2006 by providing financial help to the people of Gaza. In a sense Qatar bought a military camp at the Israeli borders. Qatar is the 3rd richest country in the world in terms of proven natural gas reserves, after Russia and Iran, and could have easlily provided the natural gas to Egypt and Jordan instead.

One of the main reasons that Qatar funded and wholeheartedly supported  the Muslim Brootherhood candidate in Egypt, Muhammad Morsi, is that if Morsi was in power he would have never made a deal with Israel, since the Muslim Brotherhood is supported by Qatar.

At the following Wikipedia link, section ‘Aftermath’, 2-3 lines before the end of the section, where the consequences of the Arab Spring on the Egypt-Israel 1978 Peace Agreement are examined, you can read that the deputy chief of the Muslim Brotherhood said that the Brotherhood does not recognize Israel’s right to exist.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt%E2%80%93Israel_Peace_Treaty#Aftermath

At the following BBC article you can read how much Qatar supported the Muslim Brotherhood and its candidate Morsi. In the 6th and 7th paragraph you can read that Qatar did not give all that money for nothing, but instead to make sure that Egypt would buy natural gas from Qatar. I copy these two paragraphs.

“….But this was not a charitable giveaway. It was in the nature of an investment. A Qatari economist told the BBC: “We couldn’t stand by and let Egypt collapse”, but the billions came with an expectation – “I’ll give you the money, show me the outcome,” he said.

The Qataris had already secured a lucrative deal to sell their gas to the Egyptians and they were proposing to heavily invest in the redevelopment of the Suez Canal…”.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-23185441

Many socialists that are financed by Qatar say that the Brotherhood was democratically elected. As you can read in the 3rd paragraph of the following Wikipedia link, as soon as he was elected, Morsi started changing the law to rule as a dictator. I copy from the link.

“…As president, Morsi granted himself unlimited powers and the power to legislate without judicial oversight or review of his acts….”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohamed_Morsi

Moreover you can read at the following Haaretz article that the Israelis have agreed to sell to the Palestinian Authority in West Bank 1.2 billion dollar in natural gas. But this is a small amount compared to the 45 billion dollar deals with Egypt and Jordan, and Qatar would have not probably minded. As you can see the deal was singed in January 2014 and there was no war in Gaza. It was before the agreements with Egypt and Jordan that the war broke out. Nobody starts a war for 1.2 billion dollars.

http://www.haaretz.com/business/1.567216

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Israel’s Diplomatic Relations with the Arab World and the Socialist Propaganda

Iakovos Alhadeff

We all hear European socialists who are heavily funded by the Arabs, accusing Israel of being aggressive towards its Arab and Muslim neighbours. At the following Wikipedia link you can see that 32 countries of the United Nations do not recognize Israel as a country.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_relations_of_Israel#No_recognition_or_diplomatic_relations

You can also read that 18 out of 22 members of the Arab League do not recognize Israel. And one should not be misled to think that these countries originally recognized Israel and something changed in the process. These countries hated Israel right from its birth in 1948, and they have been consistently trying to destroy it, and they would have already succeeded it if it wasn’t the U.S.A.

Israel faces Hamas on its southern borders, a terrorist organisation owned by Qatar, which openly asks for the elimination of Israel, and on its northern borders it faces Hezbollah, another terrorist organization, this one owned by Iran, which is very similar to Hamas.

Israel has two kinds of neighbours. The ones who openly admit and try to eliminate it and the ones who would like to eliminate, but they do not say so openly, and some of them also believe that they have to accept Israel in order to avoid war. Israelis do not have any neighbours who wholeheartedly accept their right to exist as a nation.

Unfortunately European people fall for the propaganda of their Arab funded socialist leaders. The following map shows countries in which Islam is the main religion i.e. the majority of the population in these countries are Muslims (green countries), and the only country in the world where Judaism is the main religion i.e. Jews constitute the majority of the population (red country).  Israel has 8 million inhabitants six of whom are of Jewish religion.

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An Update for the Conflict Between Turkey and Israel

Iakovos Alhadeff

In my essay ‘The Real Causes of the Conflict Between Turkey and Israel’, I was describing how this conflict is nothing more than another ‘cold’, for them moment, energy war. I would now like to update the above essay, or say with fewer words what I was saying in this essay.

http://iakal.wordpress.com/2014/08/23/the-causes-behind-the-conflict-between-turkey-and-israel/

Cyprus Israel Turkey100

It is a well known fact that Turkey imports most of its oil and natural gas, and it therefore wishes to become the absolute energy hub that will connect Asia to Europe (red lines) as a remedy to this problem. This will generate billions in terms of transferring fees, and a dramatic increase in Turkey’s geopolitical significance.

This is the reason that Turkey is so aggressive towards Israel and Syria who tried to provide an alternative route of energy to Europe (black lines), Israel by exploiting its natural gas reserves and Syria by agreeing to the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline, which would bring Iranian natural gas and oil to the Mediterranean Sea, and from there to the European markets. I have written many times about these issues so I will not repeat myself.

The question was why the Israelis could not avoid the conflict with this regional superpower that has an army of 1 million men, since it was fully aware of Turkey’s energy strategy. The answer is quite simple. Israel is surrounded by enemies and it considers of vital importance to have its own energy supplies, for energy security reasons first of all, and for the obvious economic benefits.

However in order to exploit its natural gas reserves, Israel had to make an agreement with Cyprus, on the Exclusive Economic Zones of the two countries i.e. which sea parts belong to one country and which to the other, as you can see on the map above which was taken from the following Foreign Affairs article (only the dark part of the map without the colouring which is mine).

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/139069/yuri-m-zhukov/trouble-in-the-eastern-mediterranean-sea

The problem is that Turkey has occupied the northern part of Cyprus in 1974 (red circle), and claims a part of the island’s natural gas reserves. However the occupied territory is not internationally recognized, and therefore any deal between Israel and Turkey would have been illegal. The only option Israel had in order to exploit its natural gas reserves was to ignore its ex-ally, and strike a deal with Cyprus, and that’s exactly what it did. Turkey did not forgive Israel for that.

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The Israel-Hezbollah War of 2006 and the Ceyhan-Haifa Pipeline

You can download a free copy of this essay in pdf, mobi or epub format from Smashwords at:

https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/476001

Iakovos Alhadeff

The Baku-Ceyhan Pipeline

I have written a lot in my previous essays about the Baku-Ceyhan and the Baku-Supsa pipelines (white lines on the map), as the only American success in the Caspian Sea region, a region which is controlled by the Russians and the Iranians. With the help of the only NATO friendly country of the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, the Americans managed to construct a pipeline that bypassed both Iran and Russia, using the energy corridor Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey, transferring Caspian energy to the Mediterranean Sea  (Ceyhan) and to the Black Sea (Supsa).

Ceyhan Eilat100

They did so, in order to provide the European markets with an alternative to the Russian energy, thus decreasing the Russian influence over Europe, hoping that eventually they would manage to influence some of the other corrupted dictators of the Caspian countries too, who are currently under Russian influence, since Azerbaijan’s energy reserves are clearly inadequate to compete with the Russian ones.

At the following table you can see the Caspian region reserves by country.

Caspian Oil Reserves and Natural Gas

As you can see at the above table, the Americans and the Europeans need the oil rich Kazakhstan in order to fill their oil pipelines, and they need the natural gas rich Turkmenistan in order to fill their future natural gas pipelines, if they finally develop a natural gas pipeline network. Alternatively they can take Iran on their side, since Iran is twice as rich as Russia in terms of oil, and its natural gas reserves amount to 2/3 of the Russian ones, and therefore Iran can clearly compete with Russia.

The Ceyhan-Haifa Pipeline

Moreover they planned to construct a new underwater four leg pipeline from Ceyhan to Haifa, which would carry crude oil, natural gas, electricity and water from Turkey to Israel, which would distribute it in the whole region, but also to the port of Eilat and then to South Asia, again bypassing Iran (red line on the map). You can read about the Ceyhan-Haifa pipeline at the above European Commission link, pages 10 and 11, tables 3.2.3 and 3.2.7, or you can see it visually at the following map.

http://ec.europa.eu/energy/observatory/doc/country/2009_12_turkey.pdf

Ceyhan Haifa Pipeline 2JPG

Source:

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.gr/2012/04/complexity-of-eastern-med-energy-games.html

Also note that the rich in oil Kirkuk in North Iraq (Iraqi Kurdistan), is also connected to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, with the pipeline Kirkuk-Ceyhan (yellow line on the map). Therefore the underwater Ceyhan-Haifa connection would actually be a connection of Baku and Kirkuk with the Israeli port of Eilat in the Red Sea, and finally to South Asia (Pakistan, India, China) bypassing Iran. After describing the Ceyhan pipelines and before turning to the Israel-Lebanon War of 2006, I must also say a few words about the economic and geopolitical implications of these pipelines.

An obvious consequence of the Baku-Ceyhan, Baku-Supsa pipelines was that the Russians were very angry, since the Americans and the Europeans could compete with them in Europe if they finally manage to reach countries rich in oil and natural gas. Another consequence was that Iran was even angrier than Russia, since the Baku-Eilat pipeline would transfer Caspian energy to South East Asia bypassing Iran. As you can see on the map, the shortest way to provide Caspian Energy to South Asia is through Iran.

However with the Baku-Ceyhan and the Ceyhan-Haifa-Eilat  pipelines, another financially viable route was created, in order to provide Caspian energy to South Asia bypassing Iran, since for most of the distance (Baku-Eilat)  only pipelines would be used, which is a very efficient way of transferring energy, and tankers would only be used from the port of Eilat. This was of course very bad for Iran’s exports, but also for its geopolitical significance.

I have said many times in the past how important it is for Iran to construct a pipeline network that would connect it to Pakistan, India and finally China (black line on the map), since it would make Iran much more competitive than Saudi Arabia, its main competitor in oil markets, and Qatar, its main competitor in natural gas markets, since as you can see on the map, Saudi Arabia and Qatar cannot be connected to South Asia with a pipeline network. Geographically it is only possible for Iran to do so. For a detailed description on the war against Iran, in order to prevent it from connecting itself through pipelines to Pakistan, India and China, see my previous essays.

Therefore the Saudis and the Qataris do not want a pipeline connection between Iran, Pakistan, India and China, since it would make Iran more competitive in these markets which are currently dominated by the Saudis in oil sales and by the Qataris in natural gas sales. Moreover the Americans do not want this to happens, since it would connect China to the Persian Gulf, and it would enable China to obtain Persian Gulf energy bypassing the Indian Ocean which is dominated by the American Navy, which makes it possible for the Americans to ‘unplug’ China very easily in the case of a war. China partially fixed this weakness with the 400 billion dollar mammoth deal with Russia, according to which Russia will supply China with natural gas for the next 30 years.

The Indians, who are a key connection between Iran and China, do not want to be so heavily dependent for their energy imports on the politically unstable Persian Gulf, since there is always the possibility of a ‘hot’ war, which would prevent access to the Persian Gulf and to energy supplies. They have therefore been constantly looking for the past years for a competitive alternative to the Persian Gulf energy supply. Moreover having access to many energy sources is not only good in terms of energy security, but it also ensures better energy prices.

Ceyhan Eilat100

For Indians the Iran-Pakistan-India-China pipeline was one of the Persian Gulf alternatives, since even if access to the Persian Gulf by sea was prevented due to a war, supply could continue through the pipelines, and they have therefore many times in the past tried to promote this project, without however so far being successful. On the other hand this pipeline would pass through Pakistan, India’s main enemy, and it had its own weakness in terms of energy security.

Therefore the Baku-Eilat connection would offer India an alternative to the Persian Gulf, which would have nothing to do with Pakistan. The following Asia Times article calls the Ceyhan-Eilat pipeline a ‘lifeline’ for India, since it is an alternative to the Persian Gulf and at the same time it is a source of energy independent from Pakistan.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/JB27Df03.html

You can also read about how important the Ceyhan-Eilat pipeline would be for India in the following Times of India article.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Turkey-offers-alternative-to-Iran-pipeline/articleshow/2770237.cms

This is one more article on the subject from Pakistan Defence, but you can find many other articles if you simply google ‘Ceyhan-Haifa Pipeline and India’ or something similar.

http://defence.pk/threads/turkey-offers-alternative-to-iran-pipeline.9754/

Therefore the Baku-Eilat pipeline would not only bypass Iran, but it would reduce the pressure on the part of the South Asian countries for promoting the badly needed for Iran project of the Iran-Pakistan-India-China pipeline. Could it be worse for Iran? That’s why Saudi Arabia and Qatar did not object to the Ceyhan-Eilat connection, because they realize that if the South Asian countries do not have an alternative to the Persian Gulf, they will press harder for a land connection with Iran.

The Saudis and the Qataris can compete with oil and natural gas flowing from Eilat to South Asia, but they cannot compete with oil and natural gas flowing from Iran to South Asia through pipelines. After this large introduction I can finally turn to the Israel-Lebanon War of 2006.

The Israel-Lebanon War of 2006

As you can read at section ‘Inauguration’ of the following Wikipedia link, the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline, it was inaugurated at its Ceyhan terminal on 13.7.2006.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baku%E2%80%93Tbilisi%E2%80%93Ceyhan_pipeline#Inauguration

As you can read at the following Wikipedia link on 12.7.2006, one day before the Ceyhan inauguration, Hezbollah terrorists attacked the Israelis starting the 2006 Israel-Lebanon War.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Lebanon_War

More specifically, the second paragraph of the above link says:

‘The conflict was precipitated by the Zar’it-Shtula incident. On 12 July 2006, militants from the group Hezbollah fired rockets at Israeli border towns as a diversion for an anti-tank missile attack on two armored Humveespatrolling the Israeli side of the border fence. The ambush left three soldiers dead. Two Israeli soldiers were abducted and taken by Hezbollah to Lebanon. Five more were killed in Lebanon, in a failed rescue attempt. Hezbollah demanded the release of Lebanese prisoners held by Israel in exchange for the release of the abducted soldiers. Israel refused and responded with airstrikes and artillery fire on targets in Lebanon. Israel attacked both Hezbollah military targets and Lebanese civilian infrastructure, including Beirut’s Rafic Hariri International Airport. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched a ground invasion of southern Lebanon. Israel also imposed an air and naval blockade. Hezbollah then launched more rockets into northern Israel and engaged the IDF in guerrilla warfare from hardened position’

Moreover at the end of the first paragraph of the above link you can read the following:

‘Due to unprecedented Iranian military support to Hezbollah before and during the war, some consider it the first round of the Iran–Israel proxy conflict, rather than a continuation of the Arab-Israeli conflict.’

In section ‘Contacts with Hezbollah’ of the following Wikipedia link, you can read the following:

‘Russian intelligence agencies have a history of contacts with Lebanese Shia organizations, such as Amal Movement and Hezbollah Russian-made anti-tank weapons played significant role in Hezbollah operations against Israel Defense Forces during 2006 Israel-Lebanon conflict. It was claimed that “Russian Fajr-1 and Fajr-3 rockets, Russian AT-5 Spandrel antitank missiles and Kornet antitank rockets“have been supplied to Hezbollah through Syria and Iran Muslim GRUdetachments from Chechnya were transferred to Lebanon independently of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon to guard the Russian military engineers (sent to Lebanon to restore the damaged roads) and “to improve Moscow’s image in the Arab and Muslim world.’

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_and_the_Iran%E2%80%93Israel_proxy_conflict#Contacts_with_Hezbollah

In section ‘Arab League’ of the following Wikipedia link you can read:

‘The Arab League has called Hezbollah’s attacks on Israel “unexpected, inappropriate, and irresponsible acts,” in the words of Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister, PrinceSaud Al-Faisal. The Arab League says they have “fears of widening of tension and possible Israeli strike against Syria,“ “It’s up to the resistance — both the Lebanese and the Palestinian — to decide what they are doing and why are they fighting.

Following a meeting of Arab League foreign ministers in Cairo on 16 July, Secretary-General Amr Moussa declared that “The Middle East process is dead” and that “The only way to revive the peace process is to take it back to the Security Council’.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_reactions_to_the_2006_Lebanon_War#.C2.A0Arab_League

At section United States of the following Wikipedial link you can read:

‘Following the Zar’it-Shtula incident, the United States government condemned what it called Hezbollah’s “unprovoked act of terrorism”, and called for the “immediate and unconditional release” of the soldiers.

The United States rushed a delivery of satellite and laser-guided bombs to Israel, at Israel’s request. The shipment was not publicly announced.

In addition, the United States has thus far rejected what it considers to be meaningless calls for a cease-fire . “The Bush administration has openly rejected calls for a ceasefire. The New York Times reports that U.S. and Israeli officials have agreed the bombings will continue for another week. “On Tuesday [18 July 2006] Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice rejected an immediate ceasefire and said one could only occur once certain conditions are met.’

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_reactions_to_the_2006_Lebanon_War#.C2.A0United_States

At section Iran of the following Wikipedia link you can read:

‘Foreign ministry spokesman Hamid-Reza Asefi condemned Israel’s response stating, “The Zionist regime is desperate because of the resistance put up by regional Muslim nations and is now resorting to blind tactics against the innocent people of Lebanon with full US backing.”[27] Iran also adds that an Israeli attack against Syriawould be considered an attack against the entire Muslim world and it would bring about a “fierce response.”[28] Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, quoted by the Iranian News Agency, said “The Zionists think that they are victims of Hitler, but they act like Hitler and behave worse than Genghis Khan.’

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_reactions_to_the_2006_Lebanon_War#.C2.A0Iran

At section Iraq of the following Wikipedia link you will read that Iraq condemned the Israelis.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_reactions_to_the_2006_Lebanon_War#.C2.A0Iraq

Even though the pipelines were good for Iraq, since Iraq could export its oil to South Asia bypassing Iran, Iraq condemned Israel. The reason is that after the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003, an Iraq had a Shiite governemnt, and even though it was pro-American, it was very closely cooperating with the Shiites of Iran, and Iraq did not feel that there was any need to bypass its ally.

At section Russia of the following Wikipedia link you will read that Russia condemned the Israelis.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_reactions_to_the_2006_Lebanon_War#.C2.A0Russia

However for the Russians things were more complicated than the Iranians, because the Russians were of course against the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline, but I do not think that they were against the Ceyhan-Haifa four leg pipeline, since Russia and Turkey are very well connect with pipeline networks, because Russia is the main natural gas supplier of Turkey, and Russia could use the Ceyhan-Haifa pipeline to sell its own natural gas.

There is already the Blue Stream natural gas pipeline that connects Russia and Turkey under the Black Sea, and they are planning the construction of the Blue Stream 2 pipeline, that would connect Samsun to Ceyhan as you can see on the following 2 maps.

Ceyhan Haifa Pipeline

Source:

http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Turkey-Israel-to-build-Mediterranean-pipeline-2498862.php

Blue Stream 1

Source:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Stream

Therefore the Russians could sell to the whole region their natural gas through the route Samsun-Ceyhan and Ceyhan-Haifa. However this is back in 2006, and the problems in the American-Israeli relations are not present yet nor is the Israel-Russia rapprochement, and therefore the Russians have to support their traditional allies i.e. Syria, Iran and Lebanon.

It is therefore quite simple to explain the Middle East wars if you look at the oil and natural gas that is always hidden in the background of these wars. However the Israelis have some problems of their own with Lebanon, since their natural gas supplies are near the Israeli-Lebanese borders, and the Lebanese claim that a part of these natural gas reserves belong to them as you can see at the following two maps.

Israel Leviathan Gas Filed

Source:

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2012/07/120703-israel-new-natural-gas/

Cup Isr Gaza EEZ Foreign Affairs Colors

Source:

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/139069/yuri-m-zhukov/trouble-in-the-eastern-mediterranean-sea

Therefore the Israelis and the Lebanese, besides all the disputes I have mentioned so far, have the natural gas disputes too. However it is mainly Iran that owns Hezbollah, since it is Iran that provides for Hezbollah funding and weapons, and it is on Iran’s orders that Hezbollah acts. Iran has done with Hezbollah, what Qatar has done in Gaza with Hamas. Qatar owns Hamas. It provides its funding and weapons and through this funding Hamas managed to provide financial support to the people of Gaza and won the elections in 2006, and did not conduct other elections since that time.

Therefore in the same way that Iran bought Hezbollah at the northern border of Israel, Qatar bought Hamas at the Southern borders of Israel (Gaza). For the relationship between Qatar and Hamas and Iran and Hezbollah you can simply google ‘Qatar Hamas’ and ‘Iran Hezbollah’ to find hundreds of articles.

The main dispute between Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah is natural gas. Israel is trying to provide an alternative source of natural gas to Europe, either through Cyprus and Greece or by liquefying its natural gas and exporting it with ships. Iran and Qatar are the 2nd and 3rd richest countries in the world in terms of natural gas reserves, and Israel is closer to Europe and would provide a cheaper alternative even though it has far less reserves, and why not in Africa too. Recently I wrote an essay about the 15 billion dollar natural gas agreement between Israel and Jordan.

Therefore even though the Shiite Muslims of Iran and the Sunni Muslims of Qatar are the 2nd and 3rd richest countries in the world in natural gas reserves, and therefore hate each other as we can see with the war in Syria and Iraq now, they both do not want Israel to provide an alternative to the natural gas markets of Europe and Africa, with the help of other Mediterranean countries too, like Egypt, Greece and Cyprus. This is the reason Qatar is pushing so hard for the Muslim Brotherhood to come back to power in Egypt, since the Brotherhood is under its influence. With the Muslim Brotherhood in power Qatar could ensure that Egypt would not undercut its prices.

Therefore in the same way that Iran bought Hezbollah at the Israeli-Lebanese borders (black circle in the following map), Qatar bought Hams in Gaza (blue circle), and in the same way the Sunni Muslim terrorists of Hamas take orders from Qatar and Turkey, the Shiite Muslim terrorists of Hezbollah take orders from Iran. Therefore Qatar and Iran can use Hamas and Hezbollah to launce energy wars on Israel whenever they want.

As you can read at the following article, Hamas and Hezbollah had very good relations, until the great war between the Sunni Muslims of Saudi Arabia and Qatar and the Shiite Muslims of Iran and Iran broke out, as I was saying in my essay ‘The Energy War Between U.S.A. and Russia’.

http://www.wilsoncenter.org/islamists/article/the-marriage-and-divorce-hamas-and-hezbollah

Hamas Hezbollah

Source:

http://www.nektarinanonprofit.com/2012/03/israel.html

Therefore it can be seen that the Israel-Lebanon War of 2006 was another hot energy war, in the sequence of the hot and cold energy wars taking place in the Middle East for the last one hundred years. Any analysis about the wars in the Middle East that is not based on oil and natural gas is always totally inadequate.

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The Hot Oil War in Syria and Iraq and the Cold Oil War in South East Asia

I have written many times about the hot oil war in Syria and Iraq, between the Sunni Muslims of Saudi Arabia and Qatar on one side, and the Shiite Muslims of Iran and Syria on the other. Therefore I will not say anything about this war in this essay.

Pakistan India China 100

(you can clikc on the picture)

However if there is something uniting (?) the Saudis and the Qataris against Iran is not their common Sunni religion, but rather that one is rich in oil (S.A.) and the other is rich in natural gas (Qatar), while Iran is rich in both.

However these countries are not only fighting the hot energy war of Syria and Iraq for the European markets as I have said in the past, but they are also fighting a cold oil war in South East Asia for the Chinese, Indian and Pakistani markets. As you can see at the diagrams of the picture, China and India mainly import crude oil and natural gas from Saudi Arabia and Qatar (see also the following links).

India’s Oil Imports

http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=in

India’s Natural Gas Imports

http://data.daff.gov.au/data/warehouse/pe_abare99001415/rr07.23_india_natural_gas.indd.pdf

China’s Oil and Natural Gas Imports

http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=ch

As you can read at the following Wikipedia links, China, India and Pakistan are very poor both in oil and natural gas reserves. They are poor in absolute terms, but they are even poorer if their sizes and energy needs are taken into account.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_proven_oil_reserves

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_natural_gas_proven_reserves

Therefore these countries are ideal clients for the energy rich Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Iran. However as I already said the Saudis and the Qataris are currently the main suppliers of these countries. On the other hand, as you can see on the map, Iran has a great advantage over its competitors, since it can sell oil and natural gas to these countries through pipelines (red lines), while Saudi Arabia and Qatar can only sell them oil and natural gas through the sea (black lines). Selling oil and natural gas through pipelines is much cheaper than selling them by the sea.

Therefore for Saudi Arabia and Qatar it would be disastrous if Iran was to develop a pipeline network that would connect it to Pakistan, India and China, since it would make Iranian sales more competitive. You can read in section ‘Timeline’ of the following Wikipedia link, that Iran is trying since 1994 to construct a pipeline network that will connect Iran to Pakistan, India and China, without being successful so far.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Pakistan_gas_pipeline#Timeline

In section ‘Controversies’ of the following link, you can read that the U.S.A. were trying to prevent the construction of the Iran-Pakistan pipeline using various methods, including threats, without being successful though. On the contrary, in 2012, the Finance Minister of Pakistan announced that Pakistan would ask the help of Russia, China and Iran, in order to proceed with the project, and it was announced that the Pakistani officials would travel to Russia to discuss the details with the Russian state-owned giant Gazprom.

Short after, a Pakistani newspaper announced that Gazprom would both finance and construct the project. At the same section of the link you can read that the Saudis were also offering the Pakistanis many exchanges if they were to abandon the project.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Pakistan_gas_pipeline#Controversies

At the following Asia Times article of March 2014, titled ‘Saudi Grant Kills Iran-Iraq Pipeline’, you can read that in the end the Saudis succeeded in what the Americans failed in Pakistan. With various economic incentives the Pakistanis agreed to abandon the project and go with their traditional allies, the Sunni Muslims of Saudi Arabia.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/SOU-02-210314.html

For the Saudi loan to Pakistan you can also read the following Reuters link.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/13/us-pakistan-saudi-idUSBREA2C13G20140313

I must mention that 80% of the Pakistanis are Sunni Muslims, like in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and less than 20% are Shiite Muslims. For Pakistan’s religion see section ‘Religion’ of the following Wikipedia link.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan#Religion

We therefore see that the war of these three countries in South East Asia, contrary to what happens in Syria and Iraq, is a cold war. However nothing guarantees that this war will not at some point develop to a hot war, since similarly to what happens in Syria and Iraq, the Americans are behind the Saudis and the Qataris and the Russians and the Chinese are behind Iran.

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The Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline, the Iran-Iraq War and the Creation of PKK

Iakovos Alhadeff

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The oil pipeline of Kirkuk-Ceyhan (or Kirkuk-Yumurtalik) connects the oil rich Northern Iraq with the Turkish port of Ceyhan (white line).

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As you can read on page 90 of the following link of the International Transport Forum, an international think tank with 54 member countries, the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline was constructed in 1977 and its capacity was further increased in 1984.

 http://internationaltransportforum.org/Pub/pdf/09Turkey.pdf

 As you can read in the first paragraph of the following Wikipedia link, Abdullah Ocalan established the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) in 1978, and he launched his first attack against Turkey  in 1984.

 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurdistan_Workers’_Party

 You can see that the dates of the pipeline and the PKK are almost the same. When the pipeline was constructed the PKK was established, and when the capacity of the pipeline was increased the PKK launched its first attack. Is this a coincidence?

 Iran and Iraq are the 4th and 5th richest countries in the world in terms of proven oil reserves. At that time the Iranian-Iraqi relations were very hostile, and they finally went into a very long war, the Iran-Iraq war of 1980-1988. The main conflict was the Shatt al Arab (Arvand Rud) river, which is formed by the Tiger and Euphrates confluence (red circle in the Iran-Iraq borders), and which ends in the Persian Gulf.

 This river was, and still is, very important for transfer oil from the rich fields of the region to the Persian Gulf, in order to export it, since the Persian Gulf is the largest oil exporting region in the world. You can read about the river conflict in section ‘Territorial Disputes’ of the following Wikipedia link.

 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shatt_al-Arab#Territorial_disputes

 According to the above link, the river of Shatt al Arab was always a source of conflict between the Ottoman Empire and Persia, and they actually had to sign an agreement in 1639 about it. Keep in mind that Tiger and Euphrates are a constant source of conflict between Turkey and Syria too.

 

Therefore the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline which was of great help to Iraq as a source of extra revenue was a great problem for its foe. It is a common policy in the Middle East to fund various groups, either religious or sectarians or else, in order to attack their competitors’ pipeline infrastructure.

 As you can see on the map, Kirkuk is located in Northern Iraq, in the Iraqi Kurdistan. Kurdistan is the region in the red diagram, and it also has a Syrian, an Iraqi, an Iranian and a Turkish part. There is no evidence to support that it was Iran that financed the Kurds, but it would be something very reasonable to assume. At the following Wikipedia link you can see that the equivalent to PKK Kurdish organization in Iran, the PJAK, launched its first attack in Iran in 2004. The PKK launched its first attack in 1984 and the PJAK in 2004.

 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PJAK#Armed_conflict_and_arrests

 

 

 

 

 

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The Japanese Attack on Pearl Harbor as Another Oil War

Iakovos Alhadeff

As you can read in the first 3 paragraphs of the following Wikipedia link about the causes that led to the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. Japan, that had already invaded China which was a U.S. ally, invaded in 1940 what was then the French Indochina (yellow circle). The French Indochina was approximately located in the region occupied today by Vietnam and Laos. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Events_leading_to_the_attack_on_Pearl_Harbor

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To retaliate, the United States imposed a restriction on oil sales to Japan, which is one of the poorest countries in the world in terms of oil reserves, and even today it imports almost all of the oil it consumes. At that time Japan’s was importing most of its oil from the U.S., since most of the today’s big Middle East oil fields had not been discovered yet. For example the first significant oil filed in Saudi Arabia was discovered in 1938.

 According to Wikipedia, the Japanese estimated that because of the American embargo on oil exports to Japan, they could not achieve oil sufficiency for their navy for more than 2 years, something that enhanced their plans of invading the oil rich Dutch East Indies (blue circle), which is today’s Indonesia, and to also invade the Philippines, which at the time was an American territory. Even today, Indonesia is the 30th richest country in the world, in terms of oil reserves, but at the time she was much richer since most of today’s known reserves had not been discovered yet.

 However the Japanese knew that the Americans would retaliate if they were to invade Indonesia and Philippines, and they decided that destroying their Pacific Ocean fleet would be the right strategy. On December 8 1941, 353 Japanese aircrafts attacked Pearl Harbor and destroyed all 8 American battleships, another 8 ships of the American Navy, and a total of 188 American military aircrafts, leaving behind 2.400 dead and 1.180 wounded Americans.

 For the Pearl Harbor attack see

 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attack_on_Pearl_Harbor

 

 

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