Russia-China-Iran versus U.S.A.

Iakovos Alhadeff

China’s agreements with Kazakhstan and Russia, for the construction of pipelines that will supply China with oil and natural gas from these two countries were of great geopolitical importance, for both China and Russia as individual countries, but also as a coaltions against the U.S.A. It is not a secret that the Russian oligarchs, most of them ex KGB agents, have formed an alliance with the Chinese communists against the Americans.

SmashwordsChina Middle East

The Russians to begin with, sell most of their natural gas to the European markets. If the Europeans were to boycott them, they would face severe financial difficulties. With the new contract with the Chinese, the Russians will sell 400 billion dollars of natural gas to the Chinese for the next 30 years and will have a second major buyer. 

The Chinese on the other hand, in contrast to the oil and natural gas rich Russians, have to import most of their oil and natural gas. Energy dependence on the Persian Gulf is a great handicap for the Chinese, since the Gulf is dominated militarily by the Americans (area in the red circle). For Chinese imports see the following picture.

Capture

Source:http://www.china-briefing.com/news/2011/04/13/the-geopolitics-of-china-african-oil.html

Moreover, the Chinese ships that carry energy from the Gulf to China, have to pass though the straits between Malaysia and Indonesia (area with blue circle). However Malaysia has a close military cooperation with the U.S.A. Basically the Americans can cut off the Chinese energy supplies very easily in case of a military confrontation.

With energy flowing from Kazakhstan and Russia, the Chinese ensure that they will not run out of fuels in case of a confrontation. For the tensions between U.S.A. and China regarding the Persian Gulf oil, see the following Wall Street Journal article.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424127887324755104579073283948517714

Moreover China has built with Turkmenistan a natural gas pipeline, following the route Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan-China (orange line), see Wikipedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Asia%E2%80%93China_gas_pipeline

China wants to get hold of Iranian energy, either through an extension of the Iran-Pakistan pipeline (pink line), see Forbes

http://www.forbes.com/sites/chriswright/2014/05/22/400-billion-gas-deal-shows-russia-looking-to-china-to-replace-western-money/

 or through an extension of the Turkmenistan line (green line). That would strengthen both China and Iran. It would greatly increase China’s energy options and secutiry, and it would protect Iran against sanctions from the West. We therefore see that there is a very strong coalition of inferior civilizations against the Americans, mainly consisting of the Chinese Communists, the Iranian Mullahs and ex KGB and current Russian oligarchs. 

We could say that the Americans lost completely the energy battle of the Caspian Sea, since the only thing they managed was to transfer some oil to the Mediterranean through the Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey route (the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline). See following map

 Baku Ceyhan Pipeline

We should therefore not assume that the Americans have the power to fight energy rich aborigines for ever. If we take the American military power as given, we might wake up one day to see the Chinese Communists being the number one military power of the world. And that is very scary.

For the Russian Chinese deal see Forbes

http://www.forbes.com/sites/chriswright/2014/05/22/400-billion-gas-deal-shows-russia-looking-to-china-to-replace-western-money/

For the China Kazakhstan deal see Wikipedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kazakhstan%E2%80%93China_oil_pipeline

For the Turkmenistan China deal see Wikipedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Asia%E2%80%93China_gas_pipeline

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How They are Cutting Syria and Iraq into Pieces

At the following map you can see the progress of the Islamic State Army (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria or Islamic State of Iraq and Levant). You can see that ISIS controls the eastern part of Syria and the northwestern part of Iraq.

Isis Control

This could be a situation that pleases all parties to some extent and a truce could be reached. At the situation described by the above map, Assad who is a Russian and Iranian ally, keeps the region next to the Israeli borders and next to the Mediterranean Sea. That means that the Russians keep the naval base they have at the Syrian port of Tartus. Moreover Assad still controls the rich off shore natural gas resources of Syria, which is already agreed to be exploited by the Russians. Keep in mind that Assad is full aware that worst things might happen to him i.e. what happened to Gaddafi in Libya.

The Saudis and the Qataris are happy because if ISIS controls the eastern part of Syria and the western part of Iraq, the Iranians will not be able to send Iranian oil and natural gas at the Mediterranean Sea, through the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline, thus hurting Saudi oil and Qatari natural gas, as I was explaining in my essay “The Energy War Between U.S.A. and Russia”. Please note that the Saudis are rich in oil, the Qataris are rich in natural gas, and the Iranians are rich in both.

 Turkey is happy too, because the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline will not end in Syria i.e. next to Turkey’s Baku-Ceyhan pipeline. The Iranian pipeline would reduce both Turkish revenues and Turkish geopolitical significance.

 The Iranians are a bit happy, since their ally Assad, keeps the region next to Israel. Assad is the main connection of the Iranians at the Israeli border. Moreover the Iranians use Assad to arm the terrorists of Hezbollah in Lebanon, in order to attack Israel. Both Assad and Hezbollah are very important to the Iranians, in case Israel tries to attack its nuclear facilities. Therefore al these connections remain at the Iranians’ disposal.

 Iranians face the main problem, since it would be their own oil and natural gas that would end in the Mediterranean Sea through the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline. However that’s what happens when a country is an enemy of the U.S.A., while its enemies i.e. the Saudis, the Qatarsis and the Turks are very good friends with the U.S.A. The Qataris have allowed the Americans to build big army and airport bases in Qatar, and the U.S.A. is still the strongest military power in the world. And when weapons talk bullshit walks.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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A Page Long Summary of All the Wars in the Middle East

fIsr Turk Gr Syria

I will try to make a summary of my previous posts about the energy wars that we are experiencing in Middle East. The main idea is that there is Iran, which is very rich in both natural gas and oil, and there is Saudi Arabia, which is very rich in oil, and there is Qatar, which is very rich in natural gas, and  there is Turkey, which is very rich in neither.

 Iran wants to construct pipelines that will transfer its natural gas and oil to Syria (or even Lebanon), and from them to Europe. This is the Shiite Muslim pipeline route with the Green line. Saudi Arabia and Qatar want to send their oil and natural gas respectively to Europe, through the red pipeline i.e. the Sunni Muslim pipeline, through Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Syria and Turkey. Turkey wants this pipeline because it wants to be the ultimate energy hub of the Mediterranean Sea, and the Shiite pipeline bypasses it.

 The counties that control Syria and Iraq, can build their pipeline and sell their energy, and at the same time block the competitor pipelines, as you can see on the map. That’s all the fighting about. At the same time, Israel, together with Cyprus, started extracting its natural gas in the Mediterranean, and that could be another source of energy to Europe i.e. the yellow line. 

Erdogan cannot accept that, and it is equally hostile to both Syria’s Assad and Israel, who dared to bypass his country as an energy hub, the first with the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline and the second with the Israel-Cyprus agreement. As you can see at the following map, both the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipelines are very close to the port of Ceyhan, which is the end of the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline that brings oil from the Caspean Sea to the Mediterranean Sea, and not only generates millions for Turkey, but it dramatically increases its geopolitical importance for the Americans and the Europeans too. You can see the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline on the map below.

Baku Ceyhan Pipeline

 The Israelis are discussing with the Turks the black line (first map), i.e. to send their natural gas through Turkey in order not to bypass them as an energy hub. However in the case of Israel Turkey is not only asking the role of the mediator, but wants a part of the pie since the natural gas of the Mediterranean is in its backyard. That’s basically all.

One thing that is very important, is that Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, have a motive to stop the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline (green line) that will transfer Iranian natural gas and oil to the Mediterranean Sea, even if they do not construct in the end their own pipeline netowork (red line) in order to send Saudi oil and Qatari natural gas to Europe through Turkey.  

The benefit of stopping the Iranians is immense for these three countries even if they do not build the red pipeline network. Because if the Iranians manage to send oil and natural gas to the Mediterranean Sea, it will be much cheaper for the Europeans to buy them, instead of having to send ships to the Persian Gulf to buy Saudi oil and Qatari gas and bring them back. Therefore with this pipeline the Iranians could finish the Saudi oil and Qatari gas in European markets, or at least reduce them dramatically, while at the same time eliminating or greatly reducing Turkey’s great geopolitical significance as an energy hub, since the pipeline would end next to Turkey’s Baku-Ceyhan pipeline.

 

 You can download a free copy of this essay in pdf, mobi or epub version from Smashwords at 

https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/470672

 

 

 

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Israel and the Syrian Civil War

You can obtain a free copy of this essay in pdf, mobi or epub version at Smashwords at the following address 

https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/470116

 

Iakovos Alhadeff

Introduction 

Many people believe that the current civil war in Syria benefits Israel since it weakens a traditional enemy of the Jewish state. That would only be correct only if the Syrian civil war as an independent event, an independent war so to speak. However this is not an independent war, but instead it is only one episode between Sunni and Shiite Muslims that take place in various places in the Middle East.

 The main but not the only reason for this Sunni-Shiite slaughter is the routes that the Persian Gulf natural gas and oil will follow in order to reach Europe and other markets. Even though I discuss this issue on my essay “The Energy War Between U.S.A. and Russia and the Threat for Israel’s Survival”, I will say a few words in order to make this essay autonomous.

 The fight for the Sunni-Shiite Pipeline Networks

 Sunnis and Shiites are different branches of Islam. I do not know the differences, and I do not want to know them. I believe that behind every religious war there is an economic war. Today the war might be for oil while yesterday maybe it was for water or a fertile piece of land. But behind every religious war there ought to be an economic war. People are not that stupid to kill themselves for religion. At the following map you can see the Middle East region.

Best Qatar Map

Source: http://www.internationalteflacademy.com/blog/bid/118036/Teach-English-in-the-World-s-Richest-Country-Qatar

Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon are controlled by Shiite Muslims, or at least they were controlled by Shiites before the war with ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria or Islamic State of Iraq and Levant). Shiites constitute the majority of the population in Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon, and they are a minority in Syria, but Assad, the Syrian dictator, is an Alewite i.e. a branch of Shiite Islam, and therefore Syria is controlled by Shiites too. You can read at the first lines of the following Wikipedia link that Alewites are a branch of Shiite Islam. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alawites 

Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Jordan are controlled by Sunni Muslims. Between the Shiite Iran and Sunni Qatar there is the largest natural gas field in the world, namely South Pars. But Sunni and Shiite countries have many other energy sources too, since the Persian Gulf holds most of the global energy resources. As you can see at the following Wikipedia link, the Persian Gulf holds 2/3 of the world’s oil and 35% of the world’s natural gas reserves. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persian_Gulf#Oil_and_gas 

Both the Shiites and the Sunnis want to build their own pipeline networks in order to market their energy. The Shiites want to use the route Iran-Iraq-Syria-Lebanon-Europe, and the Sunnis the route Qatar-Saudi Arabia-Iraq-Syria-Turkey-Europe.

As you can see on the map, these two routes are incompatible, because if the Shiites control Iraq and Syria, the Qatar Turkey pipeline cannot reach Turkey since Syria and Iraq is blocking the pipeline. If on the other hand the Sunnis control Syria and Iraq, the Iran-Lebanon Shiite pipeline cannot reach Lebanon, since the Sunni controlled Iraq, Syria and Turkey will block it.

 You can therefore see that the geopolitics of the region is a bit complicated, and the energy sources of the region are very valuable. The Americans are on the Sunnis’ side and the Russians on the Shiites’ side. The Americans are hoping that if the Sunni natural gas pipeline reaches Europe, Russia’s geopolitical influence in Europe will be decreased. At the moment Russia provides about 30% of Europe’s oil and natural gas. 

The Russians on the other hand are on the Shiites’ side, since the Shiite pipeline will block the Sunni pipeline, and the Shiite pipeline will not be very competitive to Russia’s current networks. After all it will not reach Europe directly but only through the Mediterranean Sea, and it will also end up at Russia’s backyard, because Syria is Russia’s backyard. Russia has a naval base in Syria, at Tartus, and moreover Assad has signed an agreement with Russia in order for Russia to exploit the large Syrian natural gas fields in the Mediterranean Sea. Therefore to examine what is the best outcome for Israel in terms of the Syrian conflict one must examine it in the context of the whole Sunni-Shiite conflict. 

For the Iran-Syria pipeline see the following Wikipedia link. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran-Iraq-Syria_pipeline 

For the Qatar – Turkey pipeline see the following Wikipedia link. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran-Iraq-Syria_pipeline

Syria and Israel

Let’s examine first the case of Sunni dominance in Syria and Iraq. As it can be seen on the map, a dominant Sunni block is a very scary picture for Israel.  It involves Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, Syria and Turkey. Isn’t that very scary? Please note that Turkey is no longer the Israel ally it used to be. Turkey has taken the role played in the past by the Egyptian President Nasser, which is to be the coordinator of Muslim aggression towards Israel. I say more about the Turkish-Israeli conflict in my essay “The Causes Behind the Conflict Between Turkey and Israel”.

Best Qatar Map

Source: http://www.internationalteflacademy.com/blog/bid/118036/Teach-English-in-the-World-s-Richest-Country-Qatar

Therefore all those who believe that the Syrian civil war is good for Israel should reconsider it. The only benefit of a Sunni Syria, under a regime of the Muslim Brotherhood or a similar organization for Israel, would be that Iran would find it harder to support the Lebanese Shiite terrorist organization Hezbollah, since Assad is normally the intermediary. But is this a significant benefit? Making it a bit harder for Iranians Shiites to supply Hezbollah with ammunition, while taking the risk of seeing Turkey and Syria, two traditional enemies, building a Sunni coalition against Israel? It does not seem to be very tempting. 

What is indeed good for Israel in the Sunni side is the disagreement among Sunni members on the subject of the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas, which is its subsidiary in Gaza. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates are against the Brotherhood and Hamas, since they believe they pose existential threats to them, while Qatar and Turkey are strongly pro-Brotherhood. That’s the reason Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and United Arab Emirates blamed Hamas for the Gaza crisis of the summer of 2014. Not because they are pro Israel, but because they are anti-Hamas and it would be convenient for them if Israel was to execute Hamas. If this disagreement was bridged things would become much tougher for the Israelis. That’s all I can say for the Sunni block. It does not seem very promising for Israel to say the least. 

If the Shiites were to hold their positions against the Sunnis, it would be harder for a unified block to be formed against Israel. Even though this difficulty was bypassed in the case of Hamas, since Hamas was supported both by Sunni Qatar and Shiite Iran. Therefore even though I do not really know what is better for the Israelis, it seems naïve to assume that a regime change in Syria that would bring the Brotherhood in power would be a good thing for Israel. I do not think that the Israelis would exchange Assad, their old foe, for some extremist Sunnis. What is of vital importance for the Israelis is that Egypt does not fall in the hands of the Brotherhood, and that it continues to oppose them together with the Saudis, in order to be at the opposite side of the Qatar-Turkey camp. 

And one should not be confused by potential Israeli attacks on Assad. Assad is the intermediary between Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon, he is a traditional enemy for Israel, and Israel has every motive to destroy weapons that can be used against it, either from Assad or from a potential new enemy that can follow him.

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The Real Causes of the Conflict Between Turkey and Israel

***You can obtain a free copy of this essay in pdf, mobi and epub format at Smashwords

https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/469682

or you can download it for free for Apple devices at

https://itunes.apple.com/us/artist/iakovos-alhadeff/id840901147?mt=11

or download it for free  for nook devices at Barnes and Noble (it usually takes 3 to 5 days for Barnes and Noble to upload the ebook)

http://www.barnesandnoble.com/s/iakovos-alhadeff?store=allproducts&keyword=iakovos+alhadeff

Iakovos Alhadeff

Introduction

 I always found the conflict between Turkey and Israel strange, since the two countries had a long tradition of smooth commercial and military cooperation. And yet it seems now that Israel is perceived by Recep Erdogan, the Turkish Prime Minister, as his country’s major enemy.

 What happened? It was only in 2005, as you can see in paragraph “After AKP Ascendancy” of the following Wikipedia link, that Recep Erdogan, during his visit in Israel, informed the nationalist Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, that the Iranian nuclear program was not only a threat for Israel, but instead a threat for the whole world. Is it possible for someone to say something that will please the Israelis more than that? 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Turkey_relations#After_AKP_ascendancy

 Moreover, as you can read in the same paragraph, during his staying in Israel, Recep Erdogan, paid a visit to the Holocaust Museum, and said that for his party, anti-Semitism was a crime against humanity, and also that the Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs said that the relations between Israel and Turkey were perfect. So what changed so dramatically, and today Turkey is with Iran and Qatar the major supporters of the terrorist organization Hamas, which is the organization that launches rockets from Gaza to Israel? As always the explanation is oil and natural gas.

 Israel-Greece-Cyprus

 The first reason is the vast resources of natural gas that exist in the sea area between Cyprus and Israel, which you can see at the following Wikipedia map with green and orange. The vast area above the green country (Cyprus) is Turkey.

Turkey Israel Map

Greece, Cyprus and Turkey, have long disputes about their Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ), since the latter determines who has what claims on the areas energy riches. And Turkey does not recognize the EEZ of Greece and Cyprus, since doing that would allow the two countries to exploit the region’s natural gas. Israel however, did recognize the Greek and Cypriot EEZ, as you can see at the following Wikipedia link. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exclusive_economic_zone#Greece

Recognizing the Greek EEZ was a major blow in the Turkish-Israeli relations. Moreover, since Turkey was threatening Greece and Cyprus that it would retaliate in case they unilaterally declared their EEZ without Turkey’s approval, Greece, Cyprus and Israel formed a militarily coalition against Turkey. At the following Wikipedia link, at section Military Cooperation, you can read about the Greek-Israeli military cooperation.

 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greece%E2%80%93Israel_relations#Military_collaboration

 In 2008 the first Greek-Israeli military exercise took place, under the code name Glorious Spartan. The second military exercise between the two countries, with code name Minoas 2010, was scheduled for the 26th of May 2010, and was supposed to last until the 3rd of June. The exercise started on the 26th as scheduled. However on the 31st of May 2010, in order to take revenge from Israel, Erdogan launched the Gaza Freedom Flotilla, a flotilla of 6 ships, with the ship Mavi Marmara on the lead. Supposedly the aim of the flotilla was to break the embargo imposed by the Israelis on Gaza’s port.

 However Erdogan was fully aware that there was no chance that the Israelis would allow that. If the Israelis were to do so, Hamas would not have to struggle in order to smuggle Iranian and Qatari rockets and weapons from Egypt to Gaza. They could simply use harbor cranes to unload them from big ships. Therefore there was not even the slightest chance of success, and Erdogan knew that very well. What Erdogan was hoping for, was that the Israelis would respond with violence to the attacks of the terrorists against its soldiers, when the latter would attempt to seize the ships, and use this blood to isolate Israel diplomatically. And that’s exactly what happened. 

Following the Mavi Marmara incident, the Greek government had to withdraw its military forces from the common exercise with the Israelis, ending the exercise on the 31st of May instead of the 3rd of June as scheduled. However this incident only temporarily terminated the Greek Israeli military cooperation. I must mention that Greek journalists were very pro Erdogan and anti Israel during the Mavi Marmara crisis, since most of them work for Greek businessmen who have very close ties with the Arabs, and therefore their interests are not always in tandem with national strategy.  

I mean that at a time when the Greek Army was conducting a military exercise with the Israelis, and the Israelis had recognized the Greek Exclusive Economic Zone, and while Greece had joined a common defense doctrine with Israel against Turkey, Erdogan was attacking Israel to retaliate, and the Greek reporters were supporting Erdogan. You can read about what I say in the following link of the Research Institute of European and American Studies.

 http://www.rieas.gr/research-areas/greek-israel-studies/2077-greek-israeli-cyprus-military-and-security-relations-a-preview-.html 

Turkey-Qatar

 The second cause of the Turkish Israeli conflict is the natural gas and oil of the Persian Gulf. As I was explaining in great detail in my essay “The Energy War Between U.S.A. and Russia”, there is a great fight in the Middle East between the Shiites regimes of Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, and the Sunni regimes of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, U.A.E. and Turkey. The cause of the conflict is that both the Shiites and the Sunnis want to send Persian Gulf energy to Europe and East Asia with their own pipeline networks.

Before the ISIS or ISIL attacks (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria or Islamic State of Iraq and Levant or simply Islamic State), Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Lebanon were controlled by Shiites(or Shia). These regimes wanted to send energy to Europe, following the route Iran-Iraq-Syria-Lebanon-Europe. You can read about the Iran-Iraq-Syria or the Shiite pipeline at the following Wikipedia link. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran-Iraq-Syria_pipeline

 You can see at the following Wikipedia map the route they would follow.

suni bloc

Please not that Syria is controlled by Assad, who is an Alawite. Alawites are a branch of Shiite Islam, as you can read in the first few sentences of the following Wikipedia link. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alawites 

On the other hand, Sunni regimes i.e. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, U.A.E., Kuwait, and Turkey, want to build their own pipeline network, in order to send their energy to Europe, following the route Qatar-Saudi Arabia-Iraq-Syria-Turkey-Europe. You can read for the Qatar-Turkey pipeline at the following Wikipedia link. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qatar-Turkey_pipeline 

As you can see at the map, if Iraq and Syria are controlled by the Shiites, the Sunni pipeline is blocked. That’s the cause of the war in the region. Therefore Turkey’s interests are closely linked to Qatar’s interests, since the Qatar-Turkey pipeline will increase dramatically Turkey’s geopolitical significance as an international energy hub, and it will generate lot’s of revenues in hard currencies. But Qatar is one of Israel’s lethal enemies, and the major supporter of the terrorist organization Hamas, which launches rockets to Israel.

Therefore the Sunni pipelines in the Middle East bring Turkey and Qatar much closer, and the energy triangle between Greece-Cyprus and Israel, move Israel and Turkey further apart. As it is most of the time the case, energy is the reason that Israel and Turkey, once a strong alliance, are now standing so far away. 

You can read more about the Pipeline war between the Sunnis and the Shiites at the following link. “The Energy War Between U.S.A. and Russia”. 

http://iakal.wordpress.com/2014/08/05/the-energy-war-between-u-s-a-and-russia-and-the-threat-for-israels-survival/

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The Battle for Caspian Oil During World Wars

You can download a copy of this essay for free, in pdf, mobi or epub version from Smashwords,

https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/469153

  Iakovos Alhadeff

*What follows is significantly based on a very interesting book that I read, namely the journalist Lutz Kleveman’s “New Great Game: Blood and Oil in Central Asia”. 

The First World War was the first war where the winner was determined by oil. The German Empire lost the war because it ran out of fuel. At the beginning of 1918, the conditions facing the German army were favorable. On March 1918, the Russian Communists (Bolsheviks) had deposed Tsar Nicolas II, but they needed soldiers to fight the remaining tsarist forces.

Lenin, who at the time was the Bolshevik negotiator, proposed the Germans to hold the Baltic Sea countries, plus Ukraine and Finland, in order to achieve a truce. But Erich von Ludendorff, the German army’s chief, required access to the oil of Baku too. In August 1918, the Turkish army, a German ally, was entering Baku. However this was a brief victory, since soon British troops from Persia (Iran) attacked the Turks and liberated Baku, depriving the German army from these indispensable supplies.

Caspian Countries

The Caspian oil also played a significant role in World War Two. At the beginning of 1942, the Germans attack on Russia, under Operation Barbarossa which had started in 1941, was already in progress. At the beginning of 1942, Hitler ordered Operation Blue, according to which the Germans would attempt to take control of the Caspian region, in order to get hold of the Baku oil, which was desperately needed. The German army literally ran out of fuel on the Caucasus. The Battle of Stalingrad was the failure of Operation Blue. You can see Stalingrad, today named Volgograd, just above the Caspian Sea region. The map is from

https://www.ncafp.org/ncafp/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/eastern_european.gif

Stalingrad-Volgograd

Initially Hitler refused to pull his army out of Caucasus. Finally, on January 1943, the German Army was ordered to retreat. The Germans did not gain access to the oil of Baku. Approximately two years later, the Russians were marching into Berlin. For Operation Blue you can also check the following link.

http://www.historylearningsite.co.uk/operation_blue.htm

Baku is the capital of Azerbaijan, which used to be one of the Soviet Republics, and which gained its independence in 1991. Azerbaijan signed oil contracts with the American companies, in order to transfer Caspian oil and natural gas to Europe. However Russia considered Azerbaijan to belong in its sphere of influence, and wanted to stop this cooperation at any cost.

It was with the Russian support that Armenia, one of the neighboring countries, attacked Azerbaijan. During the period 1994-1997, the Russians provided the Armenians with 1 billion dollars in arms. The famous Russian missiles S-300 were part of this generous military support. Azerbaijan is a very important country for Russia, because the problem of the Americans is how to transfer Caspian energy, both oil and natural gas, from the landlocked Caspian region to the markets, thus limiting the Russian influence.

The only solution for the Americans to transfer Caspian energy to Europe was through Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey. This pipeline was also the only way for Azerbaijan not to be dependent on Russia. Russia approached its old rival, Iran, which is very hostile towards the Americans, in order to put Azerbaijan between Russia and Iran, and limit its capacity to cooperate with the west.

Baku Ceyhan Pipeline

There are more spies than businessmen in Baku, most of them Russians and Iranians. However in 1999, President Clinton, met the presidents of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Georgia, and signed the agreement for the Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline, which you can see at the above map, and which was finished in 2005. The pipeline transfers Caspian oil to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, the deep waters of which can accommodate large tankers. The source of the map is

http://www.oilfund.az/en_US/layiheler/baki-tbilisi-ceyhan-esas-ixrac-boru-kemeri.asp

Below you can see another map of the Baku Ceyhan pipeline from Wikipedia.

Baku Ceyhan Pipeline 2

This was a partial victory for the Americans, since they also need to transfer natural gas to Europe, and both oil and natural gas to the South (Indian Pacific) and to East Asia i.e Japan etc, in order to limit both the dependence of their allies on the highly volatile Persian Gulf region, limiting the Russian influence at the same time.

In 2005, Professor Tuncay Babali, an advisor of the Turkish President, Recep Erdogan, estimated that the annual benefit of the pipeline would be 29 billion dollars for Baku, 600 millions for Georgia, and 300 millions for Turkey. You can see his paper at the following link.

http://sam.gov.tr/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/TuncayBabali.pdf

For more information on the modern battle of the Americans and the Russians for Caspian oil you can go to the following links, which however are not based on Lutz Kleveman’s book, but rather on various other material.

“The Energy War Between U.S.A. and Russia”

http://iakal.wordpress.com/2014/08/05/the-energy-war-between-u-s-a-and-russia-and-the-threat-for-israels-survival/

“Why the United States Invaded Afghanistan”

http://iakal.wordpress.com/2014/08/19/why-the-united-states-invaded-afghanistan/

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Why the United States Invaded Afghanistan

You can download a free copy of this essay in pdf format from Smashwords

at https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/468545

Iakovos Alhadeff

The war in Afghanistan, like all great wars, was a war for crude oil and natural gas. But it was not a war for oil in the sense put forward by socialists, i.e. by some greedy entrepreneurs fighting for profits. As you can see at the following Wikipedia link,

 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_oil_company

 75% of oil is produced by national oil companies (NOC), and 90% of oil reserves are controlled by national oil companies. The following table,

Rank

2013

Rank

2003

Company

Production Volumes (in million barrels of oil equivalent – BOE – per day)*

2013 ranking

Production Volumes (in million barrels of oil equivalent – BOE – per day)*

2003 ranking

1.

1.

Saudi Aramco (Saudi Arabia)

12.7

9.9

2.

2.

Gazprom (Russia)

8.1

9.5

3.

3.

NIOC (Iran)

6.1

4.9

4.

4.

ExxonMobil Corp. (USA)

5.3

4.6

5.

N/A

Rosneft (Russia)

4.6

N/A

6.

6.

Royal Dutch/Shell (NL/UK)

4.0

4.1

7.

9.

PetroChina (China)

3.9

2.5

8.

5.

Pemex (Mexico)

3.6

4.2

9.

8.

Chevron Corp. (USA)

3.5

3.2

10.

12.

KPC (Kuwait)

3.4

2.3

11.

7.

BP (UK)

3.1

3.9

12.

10.

Total (France)

2.6

2.4

13.

N/A

Petrobras (Brazil)

2.5

~1.5

14.

N/A

QP (Qatar)

2.4

1.4

15.

14.

ADNOC (UAE)

2.4

1.82

16.

15.

Lukoil (Russia)

2.3

1.8

17.

20.

MoO (Iraq)

2.22

1.6

18.

11.

Sonatrach (Algeria)

2.19

2.36

19.

18.

PDVSA (Venezuela)

2.1

1.6

20.

19.

Statoil (Norway)

2.0

1.6

shows the biggest energy companies for 2013. You can find the table at the following link, which is actually a list from Forbes magazine.

http://petroleuminsights.blogspot.gr/2013/11/worlds-top-20-oil-companies-2013-forbes.html#.U1QeHVV_um4

 As you can see, the major energy companies are state owned. You can read another article by Wall Street Journal, which states that the major energy companies are controlled by the states.

 http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052748704852004575258541875590852

 One more article by Forbes.

 http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2013/11/17/the-worlds-biggest-oil-companies-2013/

 Therefore the cause of oil wars is not that greedy businessmen fight for profits, but rather the opposite i.e. oil wars occur due to oil nationalism. If the problem was money it could be easily overcome. For example Russian, American and Chinese entrepreneurs could all participate in oil companies, and everyone could be happy. The problem is who controls the energy levers in case of conflicts. Because the one who controls energy, is the one who wins the war too.

 Actually it is generally accepted, that the reason Hitler broke his agreement with the communists and attacked Russia in 1941, was the Caspian Sea oil, which he wanted to have under his control in order to support his army that was fighting in almost all continents. Many people believe that communists were Hitler’s big enemies. They are wrong. Under the famous Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, black and red socialists, Nazis and Communists that is, had agreed to split Eastern Europe between them in zones of influence.

 This agreement was broken by the Nazis and not by the Communists, when Hitler attacked Russia on June 22nd 1941, in order to get hold of her energy riches in the Caspian. He lost this war, and while the allies had control of the Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea, he had to rely mainly on Romania for oil, and he stayed thirsty. You can read about the Nazi-Communist agreement in the first lines of the Wikipedia link.

 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molotov%E2%80%93Ribbentrop_Pact

 Therefore the cause of oil wars is not the money, but who controls the oil supply, because the one controlling the oil supply wins the wars in case of conflicts. I wish the problem was money. If that was the problem everything would be much simpler. The problem is oil nationalism.

 At the following map, you can see two of the richest areas in oil and natural gas i.e. the Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea. The United States, through their military presence in the Persian Gulf after the Second World War, made sure that oil was flowing without interruptions to U.S.A. and Europe. They paid a great price for their presence, both in economic terms, and on political terms, since they had to fight with international communism.

China Middle East

The U.S.A. today wants to have alternative ways of energy supplies, so that they do not depend on the heavily unstable Persian Gulf. They therefore want to find routes to transfer oil and natural gas from the Caspian Sea to their allies, avoiding their main competitors. You can see on the map that the only way for oil and natural gas to flow from the Caspian Sea to the Indian Ocean, thus avoiding the other major powers, Russia and China, and the famous enemy of the United States i.e. Iran is through Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

 And while the U.S.A. had agreed with Turkmenistan, they were facing a very hostile environment in Afghanistan from the Taliban regime. That does not mean that the Taliban and Osama Bin Laden with his Al Qaida did not engage in terrorist actions against the U.S.A. But if it wasn’t for the energy routes, the Americans would not have invaded Afghanistan. We should not worry too much about the Talibans, the Chinese communists, and other underdeveloped civilizations. The only way to measure which civilization is superior, is by measuring the level of freedom it offers to its citizens. And we all know that the U.S.A. offers much more liberty to American people, than the one offered by the Chinese communists and by Putin’s oligarchs.

 Therefore we should ask Americans to go and civilize barbarians that pose a threat to them. And once the savages are taught to be free, they should be left free. Imagine a world where the strongest party would be the Chinese communists or the Russian oligarchs. It would be terrible. The problem is that the elites of inferior civilizations, always teach their citizens to believe that the Americans are fascists, because they do not want to reach a higher civilization, since that would mean institutions similar to the American ones, which would surrender power to the people.

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